The Kansas City Chiefs will be looking to jumpstart their season when they travel to the Meadowlands to take on the lowly New York Giants on Monday Night Football.
The Chiefs at 3-4 still have their usually explosive offense and rank 5th in the NFL in offensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
But, an abject increase in turnovers mixed with a much more fragile defense have dragged this team into the doldrums of the AFC playoff race.
Kansas City entered the season as a Super Bowl favorite at +600 but has since fallen out of the top five.
The Giants, meanwhile, are still mired in their rebuilding.
The injuries didn’t help. All of their best players and even quarterback Daniel Jones have been let go at some point this season.
Running back Saquon Barkley and top receiver Kenny Golladay will each miss Monday’s game.
Their No. 2 and No. 3 receivers – Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney, respectively – are also assaulted and both are listed as questionable for MNF. Sheperd and Toney should still be playing.
Shepard has a hamstring problem while Toney treats an ankle injury.
And yet, despite those top-to-bottom injuries from their offense, Daniel Jones’ passing yardstaff is the second highest bet for Monday Night Football.
Chiefs vs. Giants The most popular accessories
- Tyreek Hill will score the first touchdown of the game (+600)
- Daniel Jones records over 242.5 passing yards (-115)
- Travis Kelce will register over 6.5 receptions (-145)
(This is according to BetMGM.)
Tyreek Hill has completed the Most Popular Player of the Week zero times this season, but bettors obviously think this is the week he turns things around.
While Hill maintained his production on the field averaging over 100 total yards per game, his touchdown count declined in conjunction with the Chiefs’ overall struggles.
Hill averages just 0.7 touchdowns per game compared to a career average of 1.1.
That’s about a touchdown difference every 2.5 games.
Dating back to the 2019 season, Hill touched this prop six times in 34 games, which is about 18% of the time.
This implies odds of around +460, which means there could be value on the +600 prop provided by BetMGM for Monday.
If you’re sure this is the night the Chiefs offense can explode, this prop might be worth sprinkling on.
Daniel Jones achieved his second highest bet in four of seven games this season, but hasn’t done so since suffering a concussion in Week 5 against the Dallas Cowboys.
For his career, Jones passed the 242.5 passing yard mark in 13 of 34 games, for a rate of over 38%.
This implies a rating of around +160.
Using only this season’s numbers as a previous one would imply a probability of around -135 that this prop will hit.
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has made the third most-bet in four of seven games this season, for implied odds of around -135.
Dating back to the 2019 season, Kelce completed the prop 19 of 38 games for implied odds of +100.
Again, if you’re thinking the Chiefs are bouncing back from a three-point performance against the Tennessee Titans last week, this prop from Kelce might be the bet for you.
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