Philip Shen, Managing Director of ROTH Capital Partners, hosted top analysts from PV InfoLink to discuss their outlook on price, supply and demand at every stage of the solar value chain.
From pv magazine USA
A downward trend in polysilicon prices is expected this year, and inventory levels across the solar value chain are expected to start building in the first half of 2022, said Corrine Lin, chief analyst at PV Infolink and Dora Zhao, senior analyst at PV Infolink. , in a recent webinar tenuous by Philip Shen, Managing Director of ROTH Capital Partners. Click here to save and view the recorded webinar session.
PV Infolink reports that polysilicon prices excluding VAT (before taxes) are expected to rise from current levels of $26-30/kg to $19/kg by the end of the year. Prices have recently recovered to around $30/kg, largely due to shrinking polysilicon inventories due to seasonality ahead of the Chinese New Year and a rebound in usage levels from the end of 2021, Zhao said.
According to the report, inventory levels are expected to increase throughout the value chain. Currently, value chain inventory levels are well below healthy levels, ranging between about a month and six weeks across all segments, PV InfoLink said. Polysilicon inventory is approximately two weeks and wafers hold less than one week of inventory.
The report projects an increase in production to 318 GW of polysilicon and 322 GW of wafers worldwide in 2022. price support for polysilicon and wafers until 2022.
Capacity expansions are underway across the value chain, driven by “just in case” inventory considerations due to ongoing Covid logistics. Lin and Zhao noted that many new entrants are expected to continue through 2023, including Shangji Automation, Gaojing Solar, Shuangliang Group and Fuxing New Energy (n-type wafers).
Lower polysilicon prices will have a ripple effect on the supply chain, and forecast prices for InfoLink PV modules will rise from $0.27/W in the first quarter to $0.24/W in the fourth quarter.
N-type modules are expected to grow by around 7-8% market share this year, while PERC modules will likely maintain their dominance with around 90% market share. Lin said there has been an increase in the number of companies interested in expanding TOPCon over the heterojunction. She said that byOvskite technology probably needs five years or more to take a significant share of the market.
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