Value chain

Starting with polysilicon, full solar value chain relief is on the way, says ROTH webinar – pv magazine USA

Philip Shen, Managing Director of ROTH Capital Partners, hosted top analysts from PV InfoLink to discuss their outlook on price, supply and demand at every stage of the solar value chain.

A downward trend in polysilicon prices is expected this year, and inventory levels across the solar value chain should begin to build in the first half of 2022, said Corrine Lin, chief analyst and Dora Zhao, Principal Analyst, PV Infolink in a recent webinar hold by Philip Shen Managing Director, ROTH Capital Partners. Click here to save and view the recorded webinar session.

PV Infolink analysis shows that polysilicon prices excluding VAT (pre-tax) are expected to rise from current levels of $26-30/kg to $19/kg by the end of the year. Prices have recently recovered to around $30/kg, largely due to shrinking polysilicon inventories due to seasonality ahead of the Chinese New Year and a rebound in usage levels from the end of 2021, said Dora Zhao.

Inventory levels are expected to increase throughout the value chain, according to the report. Currently, value chain inventory levels are well below healthy levels, ranging between about a month and six weeks across all segments, PV InfoLink said. Polysilicon inventory is approximately two weeks and wafers hold less than one week inventory. The report forecasts an increase in production to 318 GW of polysilicon and 322 GW of wafers worldwide in 2022. price support for polysilicon and wafers until 2022.

Capacity expansions are underway across the value chain, driven by “just in case” inventory considerations due to ongoing Covid logistics. Lin and Zhao noted that many new entrants are expected to continue through 2023, including Shangji Automation, Gaojing Solar, Shuangliang Group and Fuxing New Energy (n-type wafers).

Lower polysilicon prices will have a ripple effect on the supply chain, and forecast prices for InfoLink PV modules will rise from $0.27/W in the first quarter to $0.24/W in the fourth quarter.

Image: PV InfoLink and Philip Shen, ROTH Capital Partners

N-type modules are expected to grow to around 7-8% market share this year, while PERC modules will likely maintain their dominance with around 90% market share. Corrine Lin said there has been an increase in the number of companies interested in expanding TOPCon over heterojunction. She pointed out that byOvskite technology probably needs five years or more to take a significant share of the market.

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